Testing parameter sensitivities and uncertainty analysis of Biome-BGC model in simulating carbon and water fluxes in broadleaved-Korean pine forests

生态过程模型的发展为研究者在长时间序列和区域尺度的研究提供了便利, 但模型模拟的准确性受到模型自身结构、模型参数估计合理性的影响。敏感性分析能够定量或定性筛选出对模型模拟结果影响较大的敏感参数, 是模型参数校准过程中的重要工具, 也是建模和应用的先决条件。该文以阔叶红松林为研究对象, 采用全局敏感性分析方法——傅里叶幅度灵敏度检验扩展法(EFAST)对Biome-BGC模型的生理生态参数进行了敏感性分析, 分别分析了红松(Pinus koraiensis)和阔叶树的净初级生产力(NPP)、蒸散(ET)对参数变化的敏感性。结果表明: (1)模拟红松NPP的不确定性高于阔叶树, 但二者的模拟ET的不确定性均较小。阔叶树的NPP和ET对生理生态参数的敏感性总体上都小于红松。(2)无论是红松、阔叶或其他植被类型, 模拟NPP均表现出对叶片碳氮比、细根碳氮比、比叶面积(SLA)和冠层截留系数的敏感性, 这4个参数的高敏感性主要是由模型自身结构所决定的, 与植被类型和研究地区的关系较小。对模拟ET而言, 细根与叶片碳分配比、新茎与新叶碳分配比和SLA均是影响红松和阔叶树ET的敏感参数, 但红松ET主要受参数与参数间的二阶或多阶交互作用的间接影响, 而阔叶树ET则主要是受到敏感参数直接效应的影响。(3)除了上述影响红松和阔叶树碳水通量的共性参数外, 诸如核酮糖-1,5-二磷酸羧化酶中叶氮含量、叶片与细根周转率、所有叶面积与投影叶面积之比等也是对模拟结果有影响的重要参数, 但是其敏感程度随物种不同和研究区不同而不同, 所以这类参数可以根据具体情况进行参数本地化, 对于其他不敏感参数则可以采用模型缺省值。     

POPULATION ECOLOGY OF SEALS: RETROSPECTIVE and PROSPECTIVE VIEWS

This review focuses on population ecology, with critical accounts of past work and future possibilities in age determination, body growth and condition, estimating abundances, mortality rates and lifespans, reproduction, comparative life histories, population dynamics, population modelling and seals in ecosystems. We suggest ways to reduce errors in age determination and to improve methods of obtaining and presenting growth data. Generalized von Bertalanffy growth equations are promoted as a basis for analysing species differences and intra-population variation in body lengths. Indices other than blubber thickness may be better for following body condition. Catch-effort and survival-index methods of estimating abundances have limited applicability, total counts are only locally useful, and sample counts may only be accurate for scattered, ice-breeding species. Some new techniques for population indices are promising. Pre-adult mortality remains difficult to assess. Although not always recognized, adult mortality rates do increase with age, as well described by Gompertz functions. Existing estimates of lifespans are unreliable, and a new approach is outlined. There are methodological problems in estimating ages of maturity. Corpora albicantia should not be used for back-extrapolation, and more study is needed of use of teeth annuli as indicators of maturity. Age-specific proportions of females parous based on reproductive tracts may disagree with proportions recruited in breeding groups, suggesting that the former may often be in error. Allometric relationships among body sizes and life-history variables need more reliable data, especially since the residuals of such relationships are of greatest interest. Brain size may be a better scalar. Direct evidence of density dependence in population growth of seals is sparse. Early survival has been more widely shown to be density-dependent, but only among polygynous species where crowding on land may be a byproduct of sexual selection; there is as yet no good evidence of trophic restraints. Evidence of density dependence of ages of maturity is generally unconvincing. Predation, especially by sharks, may be critical in some species. Characteristics of equilibrium populations might profitably be sought in mass remains in middens and historic kill sites. More attention should be paid to the search for density-independent influences. Supposed impacts of fisheries and pollutions are not wholly convincing. Natural epidemics may keep some populations below resource or space saturation, and some high-latitude species may show large year-to-year variations in recruitment and abundances. Evidence for such density-independent effects should be sought in residuals of growth curves and in teeth layers. Although surplus yield and production/biomass models have been tried, realistic pinniped models must be completely age-structured and time-dependent. Simple models have questionably assumed stationarity to derive life-history parameters. The best available estimates of density dependence of such parameters give no resolution when extrapolated toward equilibrium, and only limited efforts have been made to introduce stochasticity. Better data, not improved model structures, are needed for better understanding. Recent work has contradicted the assumed voraciousness of seals, but their system impacts and dependencies are not well understood. Extended Lotka-Volterra equations used to model Antarctic food webs, including seals, are merely heuristic. Fixed seal biomasses enter as top-down, driving functions in a Bering Sea model, which accordingly cannot be used to analyse or manage their populations. Some Soviet models are tantalizing but ill-specified. The introduction of harbor seals in well-chosen lakes might give mote insights into system roles than would more elaborate modelling. We wonder if pinniped ecology is well served by too many enthusiasts operating under too many restraints.     

Predicting the unexpected: using a qualitative model of a New Zealand dryland ecosystem to anticipate pest management outcomes

Pest management is expensive and there is often uncertainty about the benefits for the resources being protected. There can also be unintended consequences for other parts of the ecosystem, especially in complex food webs. In making decisions managers generally have to rely on qualitative information collected in a piecemeal fashion. A method to assist decision making is a qualitative modelling approach using fuzzy cognitive maps, a directed graphical model related to neural networks that can take account of interactions between pests and conservation assets in complex food webs. Using all available information on relationships between native and exotic resources and consumers, we generated hypotheses about potential consequences of single‐species and multi‐species pest control on the long‐term equilibrium abundances of other biotic components of an ecosystem. We applied the model to a dryland ecosystem in New Zealand because we had good information on its trophic structure, but the information on the strength of species interactions was imprecise. Our model suggested that pest control is unlikely to significantly boost native invertebrates and lizards in this ecosystem, suggesting that other forms of management may be required for these groups. Most of the pest control regimes tested resulted in greater abundances of at least one other pest species, which could potentially lead to other management problems. Some of the predictions were unexpected, such as more birds resulting from possum and mouse control. We also modelled the effects of an increase in invasive rabbits, which led to unexpected declines of stoats, weasels, mice and possums. These unexpected outcomes resulted from complex indirect pathways in the food web. Fuzzy cognitive maps allow rapid construction of prototype models of complex food webs using a wide range of data and expert opinion. Their utility lies in providing direction for future monitoring efforts and generating hypotheses that can be tested with field experiments.     

Ecological thresholds: Concept,Methods and research outlooks

The concept of ecological thresholds was raised in the 1970s. However, it was subsequently given different definitions and interpretations depending on research fields or disciplines. For most scientists, ecological thresholds refer to the points or zones that link abrupt changes between alternative stable states of an ecosystem. The measurement and quantification of ecological thresholds have great theoretical and practical significance in ecological research for clarifying the structure and function of ecosystems, for planning sustainable development modes, and for delimiting ecological red lines in managing the ecosystems of a region. By reviewing the existing concepts and classifications of ecological thresholds, we propose a new concept and definition at two different levels: the ecological threshold points, i.e. the turning points of quantitative changes to qualitative changes, which can be considered as ecological red lines; the ecological threshold zones, i.e. the regime shifts of the quantitative changes among different stable states, which can be considered as the yellow and/or orange warning boundaries of the gradual ecological changes. The yellow thresholds mean that an ecosystem can return to a stable state by its self-adjustment, the orange thresholds indicate that the ecosystem will stay in the equilibrium state after interference factors being removed, whereas the red thresholds, as the critical threshold points, indicate that the ecosystem will undergo irreversible degradation or even collapse beyond those points. We also summarizes two types of popular Methods in determining ecological thresholds: statistical analysis and modeling based on data of field observations. The applications of ecological thresholds in ecosystem service, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management research are also reviewed. Future research on ecological thresholds should focus on the following aspects: (1) methodological development for measurement and quantification of ecological thresholds; (2) emphasizing the scaling effect of ecological thresholds and establishment of national-scale observation system and network; and (3) implementation of ecological thresholds as early warning tools in ecosystem management and delimiting ecological red lines.     

Vitamin C is positive in the DNA synthesis inhibition and sister-chromatid exchange tests

Ascorbate caused a dose-dependent increase in sister-chromatid exchanges (SCEs) in Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells and in human lymphocytes. Moreover, in the DNA synthesis inhibition test with HeLa cells, ascorbate gave results typical of DNA-damaging chemicals. Catalase reduced SCE induction by ascorbate, prevented its cytotoxicity in CHO cells, and prevented its effect on HeLa DNA synthesis. Ascorbate reduced induction of SCE in CHO cells by N-methylN′-nitrosoguanidine (MNNG) by direct inactivation of MNNG.     

Identification of Cognitive Dysfunction in Patients with T2DM Using Whole Brain Functional Connectivity

Majority of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients are highly susceptible to several forms of cognitive impairments, particularly dementia. However, the underlying neural mechanism of these cognitive impairments remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the correlation between whole brain resting state functional connections (RSFCs) and the cognitive status in 95 patients with T2DM. We constructed an elastic net model to estimate the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scores, which served as an index of the cognitive status of the patients, and to select the RSFCs for further prediction. Subsequently, we utilized a machine learning technique to evaluate the discriminative ability of the connectivity pattern associated with the selected RSFCs. The estimated and chronological MoCA scores were significantly correlated with R = 0.81 and the mean absolute error (MAE) = 1.20. Additionally, cognitive impairments of patients with T2DM can be identified using the RSFC pattern with classification accuracy of 90.54% and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.9737. This connectivity pattern not only included the connections between regions within the default mode network (DMN), but also the functional connectivity between the task-positive networks and the DMN, as well as those within the task-positive networks. The results suggest that an RSFC pattern could be regarded as a potential biomarker to identify the cognitive status of patients with T2DM.     

Prospects for seascape repair: Three case studies from eastern Australia

Three case studies spanning tropical, subtropical and temperate environments highlight the minimum potential benefits of investing in repair of coastal seascapes. Fisheries, a market benefit indicator readily understood by a range of stakeholders from policymakers to community advocates, were used as a surrogate for ecosystem services generated through seascape habitat restoration. For each case study, while recognising that biological information will always remain imperfect, the prospects for seascape repair are compelling.     

SH3‐class Ras guanine nucleotide exchange factors are essential for Aspergillus fumigatus invasive growth

Proper hyphal morphogenesis is essential for the establishment and progression of invasive disease caused by filamentous fungi. In the human pathogen Aspergillus fumigatus, signalling cascades driven by Ras and Ras‐like proteins orchestrate a wide variety of cellular processes required for hyphal growth. For activation, these proteins require interactions with Ras‐subfamily‐specific guanine nucleotide exchange factors (RasGEFs). Although Ras‐protein networks are essential for virulence in all pathogenic fungi, the importance of RasGEF proteins is largely unexplored. A. fumigatus encodes four putative RasGEFs that represent three separate classes of RasGEF proteins (SH3‐, Ras guanyl nucleotide‐releasing protein [RasGRP]–, and LTE‐class), each with fungus‐specific attributes. Here, we show that the SH3‐class and RasGRP‐class RasGEFs are required for properly timed polarity establishment during early growth and branch emergence as well as for cell wall stability. Further, we show that SH3‐class RasGEF activity is essential for polarity establishment and maintenance, a phenotype that is, at least, partially independent of the major A. fumigatus Ras proteins, RasA and RasB. Finally, loss of both SH3‐class RasGEFs resulted in avirulence in multiple models of invasive aspergillosis. Together, our findings suggest that RasGEF activity is essential for the integration of multiple signalling networks to drive invasive growth in A. fumigatus.